Timbers Rosterbation - Speculatory Expansion Draft Posting

I originally drafted this as an email to mao for Tuesday's mao's Football Show, however life intervened and I wasn't able to finish until well after show's the 4 PM air time. So, here we find ourselves on a blog.

First Principles
In preparing this list, I tried to focus on a couple of basic criterion. One, I'm doing what I presume the TImbers will do tomorrow- focusing on value. Players' ages and contract price play a big part in this decision, and so you won't see Blaise Nkufo or Juan Pablo Angel's names on this list. That said, I wouldn't mind if either of those players were drafted! I just expect Portland to head in a different and less costly direction. The Timbers have indicated their intent to find starters at several positions in this draft, so I'm guessing they'll try to strike some balance between drafting cheap, future roster stalwarts and more expensive veterans.

I'm also not going to go into the implications of co-drafting with the Whitecaps. Vancouver will draft simultaneously (though Portland will have first pick) in the expansion draft. Teams can only lose two players in the expansion draft. After a team's player is drafted, the team can pull back an additional player and protect him from being drafted. With two teams drafting, this means that the machinations can get complicated quickly. In a single team expansion draft, the top unprotected players on 10 teams are available. Seattle and Philadelphia both drafted in such a scenario in 2008 and 2009, respectively. On Wednesday, by my math, the top 39 players will be drafted or granted additional protection. That's a substantial talent pool dilution.


Without further ado, here are my picks. I used Dan's list at Dropping Timber so if any of my information is wrong I shift full blame in that direction.

*Note: I can't in good conscience address players from DC United, New England or Toronto FC, because I was generously spared from watching them play much this season. I would be cribbing from Wikipedia articles even more gratuitously than I did below.

In no particular order:
Jesus Padilla, F, Chivas. On loan from the parent club in Mexico, but if his contract is transferable this would be a solid pickup - young forward with experience in Primera Division. Sympathetic to taking Alan Gordon and wouldn't mind a bit if that's what FO does.

Wells Thompson, D, CO. High energy defender and very cheap. Fan favorite in CO, great style of play. Plus, he brings the Great White God with him. He doesn't have the potential of Anthony Wallace, but prayer power makes up for a lot of things.

Eric Brunner, D, Crew. Solid U-23 credentials, young and, again, very cheap. OH product, seems like a perfect Spencer player.

Dax McCarty, M, FCD. Ginger FTW. Legit #1 pick. Seems like a near certainty he'll go to Vancouver or Portland. Hope I don't have to hate you, Dax!

Appiah, M, Houston. Great project player, solid credentials and cheap. I Also like GK Onstad, and could be nice to put a thumb in the Whitecaps eye and stop them from taking the hometown guy.

Dema Kovalenko, M, LA Galaxy. Taking a chance here, but when he's healthy he seems to be the kind of player Spencer would love.

Andrew Jacobson, Union. He played in the world footsal championship! Footsal! What's not to love?

Chance Warner, D, Kansas City, Kansas. Generation adidas player who will be graduating just in time for a move north. Youth and talent uber alles! Also, Teal Bunbury isn't on Dan's list, but I assume he's protected as a Generation adidas player.

Collen Warner, M, RSL. Welcome back dude! And just to be a contrarian, if this is a late pick, I would not mind one bit seeing Portland grab Robbie Findley's rights. Findley's indicated a desire to cross both the Great Salt Lake and the Atlantic and try to latch on to a team in Europe, however, I think he's in for a rude awakening when he looks for a contract. Portland could do worse than grabbing his rights.

Sanna Nyassi, M, Flounders. Yep. Went there. He was the Sounder's third MLS player, and is likely the most high profile Seattle player available. He was a Sounder when Sigi Schmid's rave green jacket was but a glimmer in Adrian Hanauer's eye. If I were going to bet, I'd put $$ on Spencer drafting Patrick Ianni. But seeing as how this blog is written from the airy, critically rational perspective of a guy who really just wants Portland to win and win big over Seattle, I'd love the Timbers to reel in one of the biggest Flounders.

Tracking the New Media

Two numbers have been on my mind, and I think there may be something between them. On the sports end, new numbers are out showing a 12% decline for MLS soccer ratings on ESPN2. As far as local politics go, a Friday KATU poll showed what was supposedly a neck-and-neck Oregon governor's race moving substantially towards John Kitzhaber. The movement towards Kitzhaber was based in part on the fact that the poll included cell phone users, among whom the Democrat had a 15-point lead.

Our house doesn't use a land line phone. We don't have ESPN, or cable at all actually. I don't watch much TV except for sports, and much of the sports I consume I stream online using ESPN3 and other (mostly) legit sources. The only marketing people with a means to find out how much sports content I access online are the providers and vendors. Technology moves so fast, old models for gauging attitudes and habits are going to tend to have a lot of holes. I don't doubt that the Governor's race is close and MLS ratings have taken a tumble, but I wonder about how accurate a poll can be when it uses a method of surveying (land lines) all of my peers don't have, and how full the picture it shows is when it doesn't take into account the varied nature of the state of consumption.